Saturday, November 28, 2015

Louisana-Monroe Fired Head Football Coach

Louisana-Monroe has fired head football coach Todd Berry over halfway through his sixth season with the Warhawks.  So let's take a look at the Warhawks football program since 2008, which will be the last two seasons under head football coach Charlie Weatherbie and all of Todd Berry's tenure with the Warhawks as head football coach.  For those interested, the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks football program has been below average for most of the time period here.  Below is a chart of offense, defense and total production by Louisiana-Monroe since 2008 along with who would be the lowest ranked team during this time period (in purple).  The rankings below come from my Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.



Since Todd Berry took over as head football coach, the Warhawks have averaged in the bottom 25% of total production (ranked #91) and offensive production (ranked #96) and averaged in the bottom half of all teams in terms of defensive production (ranked #73).  Below is some more details about the Warhawks for each season since 2008.

Charlie Weatherbie's last two seasons as head football coach

2008
Louisiana-Monroe finished the 2008 regular season at 4-8 and were bowl ineligible.  The Warhawks played against an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average, meaning that their actual SOS was between one and two standard deviations above the "league" average SOS.  Louisiana-Monroe's best game was their 31-30 victory over #17 Troy and their worst loss was 10-24 to #114 ranked Tulane.  Overall, the Warhawks had the #109 most productive college football team with the #98 ranked offense and the #98 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.
 
2009
The Warhawks finished the regular season at 6-6 and while they were bowl eligible they did not play in a post-season bowl. Louisiana-Monroe again played an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  Louisiana-Monroe's best game was a 27-25 victory over #84 ranked Florida Atlantic and their worst game was a 17-21 loss was to #86 ranked Louisiana-Lafayette.  Overall, the Warhawk's had the #76 ranked team in terms of total production with the #81 ranked offense and the #66 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production ModelFollowing this season the Warhawks decided to not to renew head football coach Weatherbie's contract.

 Todd Berry (2010 - 2015) as head football coach

2010
Louisiana-Monroe hired Todd Berry as their head football coach in December 2009.  Louisiana-Monroe finished with a 5-7 regular season playing against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Warhawks best game was a 28-14 victory over #60 ranked Troy and their worst game was a 22-23 loss to #104 ranked Louisiana-Lafayette.  Louisiana-Monroe finished the season with the #103 ranked team in overall productivity and the #103 ranked offense and the #78 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2011  
The Warhawks finished the regular season at 4-8.  Louisiana-Monroe  played an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Warhawks best game was a 38-10 victory over #106 ranked Troy (other three victories were over #FCS Grambling, #114 Middle Tennessee and #116 Florida Atlantic) and their worst game was a 21-38 loss was to #91 ranked North Texas.  Louisiana-Monroe had the #71 ranked team in terms of total production with the #89 ranked offense and the #50 ranked defense. from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2012  
The Warhawks continued to improve under Berry and what ended up as the only winning season under head football coach Berry. The Warhawks finished the regular season at 8-4 but lost to #54 ranked Ohio 14-45 in the post season. Louisiana-Monroe played an "easier" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  Louisiana-Monroe's best game was again a 43-42 victory over #56 ranked Western Kentucky and their worst loss was 28-31 to #108 ranked Auburn.  Overall, Louisiana-Monroe had the #58 ranked team with the #44 ranked offense and the #81 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  This above average performance earned head football coach Berry a contract extension through the 2016 season.

2013
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks finished the regular season 6-6 but they did not merit an invitation to a bowl game.  The Warhawks played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  Their best game was their  victory over #52 ranked Louisiana-Lafayette and their worst loss was to #70 ranked Arkansas State 14-42.  Overall, Louisiana-Monroe had the #101 ranked team with the #102 ranked offense and the #82 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.
 
2014
Louisiana-Monroe finishing the regular season at 4-8.  Louisiana-Monroe again played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  This season the Warhawks best game was a victory over #115 ranked Troy (other wins were over the #117, 119 and 122 ranked teams) and their worst loss was to #86 ranked Kentucky 14-48.  Overall, the Warhawks had the #91 ranked team with the #110 ranked offense and the #38 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.

2015
Toddy Berry made it through ten regular season games with a 1-9 record.  At the time of Berry's departure Louisiana-Monroe played against an "average" strength of schedule (SOS) as compared to the "league" average SOS.  The Warhawks only victory was over FCS Nicholls State and their worst loss was to (at the time) #116 ranked Idaho 13-27.  At the time of Berry's firing, Louisiana-Monroe had the #123 ranked team in total production with the #125 ranked offense and the #110 ranked defense from the Complex Invasion College Football Production Model.  With numbers like those ...

2015 In Season NCAA FBS Head Coach Changes
University of Illinois and Tim Beckman
University of Maryland and Randy Edsall
University of North Texas and Dan McCarney 
University of Southern California and Steve Sarkisian 
University of South Carolina and Steve Spurrier 
University of Miami (FL) and Al Golden 
University of Central Florida and George O'Leary 
University of Minnesota and Jerry Kill 
University of Hawai'i and Norm Chow

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